SPF Jaarbericht

Market expectations and geopolitical uncertainties

Geopolitical tensions increased in 2025. US policy is causing uncertainty in financial markets. This trend is expected to continue in 2026. Where previously the promotion of mutual trade was assessed as positive, increasing emphasis is being placed on autarky for certain business sectors.

Geopolitical aspects of China's and the EU's policies are also receiving renewed interest. On balance, financial markets paid little attention to this unrest in 2025.

Equities continued to rise and reached new record levels. How this situation will develop further in 2026 is uncertain. Equity valuations are high, especially for shares linked to artificial intelligence (AI). Future profit expectations and realizations will have to support these valuations to avoid causing a negative reaction in the markets. Geopolitical unrest can also cause increasing volatility. Concerns about debt levels and rising and high budget deficits remain high. Economic growth expectations are falling, but are not yet alarming. Inflation fell in 2025, but is still at a higher level than desired, especially in the US. With regard to central bank policy, the European Central Bank is expected to leave official interest rates unchanged for the time being, while the US central bank is expected to cut key policy rates by a few steps, especially in the second half of 2026.

Financial position

In the course of 2025, the fund's funding ratio increased by over 12 percentage points, prior to indexation as of 1 January 2026. A higher funding ratio simplifies the transition to the scheme under the Wtp. During the coming year, the board will continuously monitor the development of the funding ratio and assess whether any further protective measures should be taken.

Future Pensions Act

At the end of January 2026, the board took the decision to accept the assignment for changing its pension systems to the Solidary Scheme. Subsequently, all relevant documents were made available to the supervisory authorities, DNB and the AFM, for assessment. Experience at other pension funds shows that both supervisors still have questions, desire further explanation, and sometimes wish to discuss choices made by the board. DNB aims to issue the decision for the transition in the summer.

At the beginning of 2026, DNB approved the partial review file for Risk Attitude. The board had previously submitted this sub-file to DNB. The purpose of this was to obtain prior agreement on this part of the transition file – in addition to Data Quality. After submitting the transition file to the supervisors, SPF's focus is largely directed towards the implementation of the execution of the new scheme and, in particular, communication to participants.

Lump Sum Revision Act

The bill was adopted by the House of Representatives on 8 October 2024 and is currently still being processed by the Senate. There is much discussion there about the feasibility of the law. This led the Minister to have Nibud conduct a preliminary study into a tool for the lump sum. Furthermore, the effective date has been postponed to 1 July 2026. Recently, the Minister announced that 1 July 2026 does not appear to be feasible as an effective date. Several parliamentary groups have indicated that postponement should be considered until the Wtp transition is completed. The board continues to monitor further developments and ensure that the fund is ready for it when the law comes into force.

Other legislation and regulations

Legislative proposal extending transition period future of pensions

In the meantime, the Act extending the transition period to the new pension system, after the Joseph et al. amendment was previously rejected in the House of Representatives, has also been passed by the Senate and entered into force as of 1 January 2026. This extends the statutory deadline for the transition until 1 January 2028 at the latest, and the deadlines specified in the law are moved to an Order in Council (AMvB). The deadline for submitting the implementation plan has also been changed to one year before the transition date for funds that will transition to the new system after 1 July 2026.

Legislative proposal commitments pension topics

With this legislative proposal, which is expected to be submitted in the course of 2026, changes promised by the Minister (standardisation of the definition of child, voluntary continuation of orphan's pension) will be implemented as part of the parliamentary proceedings, and a number of technical amendments will also take place.

The Digital Operational Resilience for the Financial Sector Regulation - DORA

With the introduction of DORA on 17 January 2025, harmonised European requirements for digital resilience and outsourcing risks apply. SPF implemented the necessary measures in 2024 and 2025 and meets the requirements for design. In 2026, the emphasis will be on demonstrating operational effectiveness and structurally embedding these control measures.

Sustainability policy

The sustainability policy has now become a permanent part of the board agenda. In 2026, the board will take further steps in the area of sustainability and ESG.

Among other things, the following topics are planned for 2026:

Further developing the ESG risk dashboard.
Further investigating investing with a positive contribution.
Evaluating the voting and engagement provider.
Reviewing investment beliefs, including sustainability beliefs.
Evaluating the achieved carbon reduction in 2025 and assessing whether the carbon reduction target can be expanded to other asset classes.

investment policy

In 2026, the strategic investment policy will already be gradually adjusted to the strategic policy under the Wtp. Effective from the rebalancing of 1 February 2026, the allocation to inflation-linked bonds will be expanded at the expense of the allocation to investment grade credits. The country policy for inflation-linked bonds will also be adjusted. In the final quarter, partly depending on the funding ratio on 30 September 2026 and market conditions at that time, a decision may be made to reduce the pension fund's interest rate hedge towards the interest rate hedge applicable under the Wtp.

Furthermore, the investment beliefs will be revised in 2026, with a view to the transition to the Wtp per
1 January 2027.

communication

In the coming year, communication will focus primarily on the consequences of the Future Pensions Act for (former) participants and pension beneficiaries. Attention will also be paid to the consequences of the sale of activities by SABIC and its impact on the participants.

In conclusion

In the section on future outlook, the fund must address investments, financing, staffing, and the circumstances on which the development of turnover and profitability depends. For the fund, these topics take on a different form than for a commercial enterprise. The fund is a non-profit foundation, has no employees of its own, and has outsourced its operations. Investments concern the investment of the fund's assets for the benefit of pension liabilities within the established investment and risk framework. Financing is determined by premium contributions, investment results. Together with financing, the development of pension liabilities reflects the financial health of the fund. The financial development of the fund is therefore primarily dependent on interest rate, inflation, and market conditions, demographic developments, and (changes in) legislation and regulations, and not on turnover growth or commercial profitability.

Future

The changes facing SPF are extensive and diverse in nature. In part, this concerns pension-related developments such as the Future of Pensions Act, the intensification of communication to participants, rising cost levels, and developments in the pension market. In part, it also involves geopolitical changes and developments at the employer: SPF's participants are employed in the petrochemical industry, a sector that is under pressure in Europe and particularly in the Netherlands due to high energy costs and increased regulatory burden.

At the end of 2025, SPF began mapping out possible scenarios for the future. Conducting a SWOT analysis was also part of this. Now that the sales of the production units in Bergen op Zoom and at Chemelot to German investment companies have been announced, the board will need to re-determine the impact on the pension fund during the course of 2026. SPF holds a stake in one of the two investment companies through one of its investment mandates. In the course of 2026, the board will assess whether maintaining this stake fits within the policy of the fund.

For SPF and the participants, it is important to remain connected with the spun-off entities and those responsible for pensions within those new entities.

Outlook for 2026